Perhaps now is not the time to go back into the markets. We’re in the midst of a bull market that has lasted 12 quarters. The historic average of such markets is XXX quarters. We’re due for a bear that may last for several quarters.
Have you heard this discussion? Maybe headline copy or a guest guru on CNN?
I believe in the capital markets. Regardless of how the revered stock market indices perform, there are always solid stocks that continue to appreciate. You just have to find them and have the discipline to hold them without letting the opinion of today’s guru change your mind. The market is not the devil incarnate or a bad place to be, but if you get in the wrong investments and your immediate experience is negative, it will sour you on stocks much to the detriment of your portfolio performance.
Selecting the right investment vehicles for the right reasons is the number one factor in determining the probability of portfolio performance. These investment vehicles range from bank money market funds and certificates of deposit to equity stocks. Many people select the wrong investments for their intended financial goal.
To use a baseball metaphor, it is highly unlikely that you will get a home run from a bunt. The bunt is about control, safety, high probability and low reward, similar to a CD. The bunt has a place in the game. It is used to advance a runner while the defense is focused on keeping the bunter from reaching 1st base. A CD is used for short-term return and liquidity.
To hit a home run you have to swing for the fence. You have to risk striking out to increase the probability that you will hit the home run. The correlation here is to the stock market. You have to take some risk but the reward can be spectacular. Just as the baseball slugger increases his odds of hitting the home run by getting more batting opportunities, so the stock investor increases his odds of achieving historic market performance by the length of time he is invested.
Any plan, from a baseball game to your personal financial plan, involves strategy and execution of that strategy. The manager of a baseball team has an inventory of available tools to counter every situation he may face in a game. The available tools are his players. To use them wisely, he must know the strengths and weaknesses of each player. He must have a good idea of the probable outcome of applying selected players to any given situation.
A financial professional is similar to the manager of a baseball team except the consequences of applying the wrong tools to an individual’s situation can be much more serious. He/she designs a custom strategy for an investor then selects the proper tools (resources) to execute the strategy. Like the baseball manager, the financial professional must have a clear understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of his “players” (financial instruments) and the probable outcome of applying his selections in a given situation.
The goal in baseball is always the same: Win! Although your investing goal may be stated differently (education, new car, home addition, retirement), you also want to win.
The good manager will not apply the same tools to every situation. There are financial tools that pay dividends, or pay interest, or retain earnings for growth, or provide cash in the event of death or disability. There are tools offering growth within a stated objective.
The probability that each of these tools will perform at expected levels varies. This range of probabilities may span 50% to 99%. Probability and degree of risk are inversely proportional to each other. Those investment choices exhibiting lower probability and higher risk most likely offer the opportunity for higher returns. Likewise, investments offering guarantees and lower returns have a much greater probability when invested over the same period of time.
The most important aspect of your plan is time. The average historic return of most financial vehicles is measured over some period of time. You must be prepared to allow the vehicle to achieve its’ historic return by leaving the investment in place for the specified period of time.
Here are the consequences of getting it wrong! If you do not choose wisely, not only will you not reach your goals, but you may have lost the opportunity to correct the situation. Once the time is gone, you cannot get it back.
I see many people that have invested all their money in one thing. Those that are most market risk averse will invest in CD’s for example. Others may invest all their assets into the market, or into variable annuities, or into mutual funds. They may do this expecting certain outcomes. Generally a higher degree of certainty is manifested in fixed interest vehicles and a higher possible reward in market related vehicles.
Seldom is all your money earmarked for one goal. If that’s the case, then it doesn’t follow that you should be fully invested in a vehicle that is designed for one goal. More likely, money that is required for different goals should be invested differently.
Assets you intend to use in 5 years should be invested in 5 year vehicles, assets that will not be used for ten years should be invested accordingly. The idea is to put the assets into appropriate investments whose historic performance has been measured over the time you intend to hold them. This approach gives you the highest probability of predicting the outcome of any investment choice.
The boomer generation has contributed more to the economy of the United States in the last 60 years than all the preceding generations. It is said that the sum of all human knowledge doubles every 5 days. It is impossible for any one individual to stay abreast of all this knowledge. It’s difficult enough to keep up with the news within your own area of expertise.
If there is any lesson in this, it's that whatever problem you have – a marketing problem, a tax problem, a medical insurance problem, a hospital bill, a persistent marriage communication problem, or even a toilet that keeps overflowing – it's probably not really that unusual. And there's probably an expert who can maneuver you out of it quickly. Or teach you exactly how to solve the problem yourself, so you don't have to learn the hard way.
God bless experts like Bruce Bradshaw, and God bless the people who are smart enough to use ‘em.
If you need an expert, then... hurry up and get one. If they really know what they're doing, it's almost always worth the money. Just be thorough in selecting your expert. |
